Ask a meteorologist问气象学家

It’s a good question.

这是个好问题。

We start with observations. Temperature, pressure, wind, humidity.

从观测开始。温度、气压、风、湿度。

Stations, balloons, satellites, aircraft, ships.

气象站、探空气球、卫星、飞机、船舶。

Then a model calculates what the atmosphere will do next.

然后模型计算大气接下来会怎样。

Never one. We compare several.

从来不是一个。我们比较几个。

Because the atmosphere is chaotic.

因为大气是混沌的。

Exactly. That’s why we talk about probability.

正是。所以我们谈概率。

Yes. Forty percent of the area, or of the runs.

对。区域里有百分之四十，或者多次计算里有百分之四十。

We know. It’s our fault as much as theirs.

我们知道。这既是他们的错，也是我们的错。

Still useful. Temperature is quite reliable.

仍然有用。温度相当可靠。

Honest answer: a guess with good manners.

老实说：一个有礼貌的猜测。

Trust the next twelve hours almost completely.

未来十二小时几乎可以完全相信。

After that, plan but stay flexible.

再往后，可以做计划但要灵活。

They remember the misses, not the hits.

他们记住失误，不记得命中。

It is. But we can measure it. Our three-day rain forecast is right about eight times in ten.

确实。但我们可以衡量。我们三天降雨预报大约十次对八次。

A forecast is a probability, not a promise.

预报是概率，不是承诺。

Please do. And take an umbrella anyway.

请便。不过还是带把伞吧。